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I am going to do this in English, because the people capable of reading Dutch know very well what I think of the man who here in Britain is generally thought to have a serious chance of becoming our next prime minister (Guardian, BBC). Yes, there is serious chance that he will end up conquering twenty-seven or even more seats in parliament, and there is the possibility that his party will be the largest (though, fair to say, we never had a parliament with all parties having less than 30 seats, which is one fifth out of a total of 150). Yet, I personally do not believe the man is going to be our next prime minister, and I think few people, at this point, are believing that.

We are going to have strange elections. Three parties might end up largest: the Christian-Democrats, the Labour Party, and the Freedom Party. Now for both other large parties, the Freedom Party is something of a no-go-area, simply because their voters would not accept a coalition with Wilders, and would run away. The same is true for the Greens party, the Socialist Party and the Liberal Democrats, so that it is completely impossible for Wilders to get involved in a coalition that comes anywhere near 75 seats. That's the good news.

The bad news is that Wilders' ideology of divide and rule has been dominating the debate in Dutch politics for some five years now, and that there is a fair chance of the upcoming elections campaign being dominated by issues about islam and integration, which is not at all helpful for the hard issues that are at stake in the years to come. People will cast their vote based on arguments about the burqa, islamic schools and other completely irrelevant things, without seriously thinking about the future of our national health-care, our school system or our state pension. For me, personally, that is more scary than whether or not Wilders will end up largest. One of the parties that is likely to profit sharply from this is the Liberal Democrats (D66), who will probably conquer a large percentage of the vote because of their leader saying sensible things about Wilders, but who have a socioeconomic agenda that might have far-reaching consequences for our society. Yet, many people will vote for them without even realizing. That, really, is the price to be paid for Geert Wilders. It is not a price of racism, but a price of distortion.

Reacties

Alwin (07-03-10, 10:50):
When CDA, VVD (conservative liberals) and Freedom Party have a majority and this would be the only way for our prime minister to continue his job than I would not be suprised if that would be the coalition. In current polls they score something like 74 seats. Balkenende could have no other choice, beside stepping down, than this coalition. I very much hope to be wrong. CDA and VVD are very able to make a mess without help of Wilders; imagine with his help...

Marieke (07-03-10, 17:43):
Luckily Emile Roemer has entered the scene. He may win over some (hopefully many) of the voters who chose PVV last week.

Miko (07-03-10, 20:24):
@ Alwin: I am not so sure. Yes, it will be hard for him to give up his position as PM, but this scenario is only possible if the Christian Democrats come out of the elections as the largest party, and that is far from sure. If they are smaller than the Freedom Party, it is the end anyway. If they are larger, there will be strong opposition against the Freedom Party within the CDA itself. My guess is he will be forced to announce that he is not going to govern with Wilders within the next two months.
@Marieke: Well, perhaps, but I don't see why this would happen. It had little to do with Agnes Kant that they ran away, I think. More like 'we've tried this, it does not work, let's try something else.'

Alwin (08-03-10, 10:19):
I agree. It is very important that the CDA will not be the largest (nor the VVD but that will not happen anyway). In the last poll of Maurice de Hond CDA, VVD and PPV together have 70 seats. That is hopefull. Of course this is not the most reliable poll. I am not sure wether a more media proof Socialist (SP)leader is a positive development. In this political climate they will not rule anyway and are best in competing with Labour and GreenLeft. Those are the parties I would like to have in our next government. Preferably together. I perceive Roemer a little bit as a threat. We can ofcourse disagree on that... Any seat they take from the PVV is of course positive, but only 15% of the projected voters for the PVV previously voted SP.

Marieke (12-03-10, 15:49):
Nou, er is weer ruimte voor nieuwe speculaties, met de ontwikkelingen van gisteren & vandaag! PvdA zal wel groeien, CDA krimpen, maar in welke mate?

Miko (12-03-10, 17:04):
Woef de peiler vandaag in DWDD

Erik (12-03-10, 19:12):
en nu maar hopen dat het GL-congres niet dwars gaat liggen over een vierde termijn van Femke Halsema, anders is dat noodgedwongen de volgende.

de glazen bol (13-03-10, 15:58):
Wouter Bos wordt president van DNB en Femke Halsema burgemeester van Amsterdam.